As Russian President Vladimir Putin considers whether to order yet another invasion of Ukraine, his partner in Syria, Bashar Assad, continues to consolidate his authority.
In fact, Assad is doing much more than that; his government, left for dead by the vast majority of the international community, has spent the last several years mending fences with its former adversaries.
When millions of Syrians swept into the streets in 2011, much of the world assumed the wimpy eye doctor-turned-dictator would go the way of Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali: into the night. Assad, however, didn’t pack a bag and head to the airport. Instead, he ordered the vicious Syrian security services to open fire on the protesters, hoping death would convince others to stay home. When that didn’t happen, Assad emptied jihadists from prison to radicalize the opposition movement. Over time, Assad turned to the big guns and his most loyal units, commanded by his younger brother, to surround cities and pummel them into submission.
We know how the story turned out.
A decade of civil war, partly fueled by outside powers, has reduced Syria to a land of death and despair. While the United States always hated Assad, armed his opposition for a time, and insisted that he was a barbaric war criminal (who can argue with this?), Washington rightly didn’t want to dive head-first into another conflict in the Middle East. The longer the civil war went on, the more entrenched al Qaeda elements became, vanquishing any notion that a regime change campaign was a responsible policy.
While Assad was a monster and his tactics were ruthless, he wasn’t a direct national security threat to the U.S. Assad’s kleptocracy was also fortunate to have big powers at his side, such as Russia and Iran, that were willing to invest to keep the status quo in place. Invest more, that is, than the U.S. and the Gulf states were willing to invest to see Assad pushed out.
Syria is now in a strange state. The war is effectively over, with Assad controlling most of the country’s cities, transportation corridors, airports, and ports. Yet much of what the dictator controls is a heap of rubble. Assad also sits atop one of the worst humanitarian abominations of the century. Eighty-six percent of Syrians live below the poverty line, half the population is either internally displaced or forced out of the country, and more than 12 million are food-insecure.
Syria’s neighbors, however, understand the man they tried to oust isn’t leaving. Assad may be entirely dependent on the Iranians and Russians, but there is still a prevailing belief in Arab capitals that reestablishing contact with Damascus could eventually persuade the wily Syrian dictator to start distancing himself from Tehran. The United Arab Emirates, the first Arab nation to reopen its embassy in Damascus, sees a pragmatic business opportunity in postwar Syria. UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed met Assad personally last November, and he’s hardly the only senior Arab official to reach out. Jordan’s King Abdullah II called Assad last October, the first time in a decade. Jordanian, Lebanese, and Syrian officials also just agreed on an energy deal, which would use Syria as a corridor to supply Lebanon with Jordanian electricity. Syria’s main transit hubs with Jordan and Iraq are also open for business.
The Arab world, then, has moved on. For countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, it’s better to make the best of the present reality than waste time shooting for the moon.
The U.S. has yet to reach this understanding. Even as U.S. officials recognize Assad’s longevity, they continue to talk as if a political resolution is possible. Some senior lawmakers on Capitol Hill, deluded into thinking more economic pressure would have any impact on how the Syrian government operates, want to increase sanctions.
For the U.S., full normalization with Bashar Assad is several bridges too far. But it should be abundantly clear by now that isolating Syria in perpetuity isn’t going to accomplish anything tangible. Assad will be able to withstand the storm; the Syrian people are the ones who will ultimately suffer.
It’s time for a rethink in the U.S. approach.
Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.
