In the battle over Ukraine, propaganda and disinformation play a crucial role. Assertions that President Vladimir Putin is a master strategist who consistently outsmarts the West simply disguise a growing list of his international defeats.
In reality, Putin is an opportunist trained by the KGB to detect and exploit weaknesses in his opponents and camouflage his own vulnerabilities. It is precisely Russia’s defects and defeats that must be highlighted and exploited in order to hasten the demise of the current regime in the Kremlin.
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Moscow’s glaring international defeats in trying to restore its empire are legion. They have included NATO membership for 14 Central European, Balkan, and Baltic states, most of which were former satellites; a buildup of NATO’s rotational forces to deter Russian threats along the alliance’s eastern flank; and unwavering diplomatic support for the territorial integrity of Georgia and Ukraine. Moscow’s continuous, multipronged threats also help NATO by exposing and strengthening alliance deficiencies along Europe’s eastern flank, as well in numerous nonmilitary domains.
The overarching aim of Russia’s state propaganda is to create an aura of Putin and Russia’s invincibility. This is reminiscent of previous claims about the irresistible success of world communism. In reality, Russia has failed in its attempt to become a source of political, economic, or cultural attraction. The constant use of bellicose language against neighbors and Western powers is not a sign of strength but of frustration. Despite Putin’s promotion of a “Russian World,” the regime has failed in its extensive empire-building. Instead, it has truncated and absorbed parts of neighboring states but failed to gain international legitimacy and precipitated Western sanctions.
Persistent military threats against Ukraine demonstrate that Moscow has failed to derail Kyiv’s moves toward Western institutions. The constant attacks on Ukraine’s sovereignty simply serve to strengthen its identity and statehood, which have been suppressed by Russian rulers for several centuries. Moscow has failed to offer a viable alternative to pluralistic democracy, and its corrupt economic model has a short lifespan. On the contrary, Moscow is increasingly fearful of foreign influence that will encourage the collapse of the authoritarian state.
Vehement attacks on the West disguise a deep-rooted fear of its institutions. Western standards of legality, transparency, and competition challenge Russia’s business model of corruption, opaqueness, and monopolization. The West’s political and human rights stipulations underpinned by the rule of law undermine the premises of Moscow’s autocratic model of governance. The Kremlin is fearful that a younger generation in Russia will adopt “Western values” and forcefully challenge the country’s governing elites.
Moscow’s efforts to establish an alternative center of global influence have also misfired, and its influences continue to erode throughout its former Soviet dominions. It has registered multiple failures in restoring a multinational bloc under its predominant control. The Eurasian Economic Union is stagnating and has not resulted in closer political integration, while the Collective Security Treaty Organization is basically a cover for Moscow’s unilateral military actions.
Unlike the United States, Russia has few genuine allies. The handful of countries that enter Moscow-led organizations or engage in joint military exercises are either intimidated to participate, or their authoritarian governments are guaranteed Kremlin support in case of domestic rebellions. Ultimately, Moscow’s international failures are a consequence of an assertive Western policy, both in word and deed, and not of appeasement and disinformed praise for Putin.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His recent book, Eurasian Disunion: Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks, is co-authored with Margarita Assenova. His upcoming book is titled Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture.
