Encapsulating its modern imperialist gall, Communist China claims the near entirety of the South China Sea as its own private swimming pool.
Don’t fixate on the misleading name of that sea, just look at the map below. China claims total control over the fish, energy reserves, and political sovereignty of the waters within that red, nine-dash line.
The geography is clear. And it most certainly is not in China’s favor.
Fortunately, Xi Jinping’s regime faces a growing problem. Enraged by the arrogance and bullying that defines Beijing’s assertion of control over the South China Sea, more and more nations are stepping up to resist the communist behemoth. Evincing the shifting political sands, Vietnam is bolstering its cooperation with the U.S. Navy and making new efforts to defend its own interests in these waters. The United States should do more to support Vietnam’s military capability, possibly even buying some of France’s Shortfin Barracuda submarines for Hanoi. It is not inconceivable to think that one day not so far ahead, the U.S. and Vietnam might agree to a security partnership against China.
Members of the “Quad” alignment between the U.S., India, Australia, and Japan are also taking new steps to bolster their military means and political readiness to fight alongside the U.S. should war come. Australia’s membership in the AUKUS submarine pact will see it benefit from nuclear submarine capabilities.
Other nations such as Singapore and Malaysia are also raising concerns with Beijing, albeit more often in private than public.
It’s not all positive news, however.
After years of delusional deference to Beijing, Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte is set to leave office. Unfortunately, Duterte’s likely successor in the May elections, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., seems determined to endorse his nation’s submission to Beijing. If that happens, the U.S. will have to reconsider the long-term viability of its security relationship with the Philippines. Manila cannot retain the security and trade benefits of a close U.S. ally if it decides to become a puppet regime of America’s greatest adversary.
What of the specific U.S. strategy?
To its credit, the Biden administration recognizes the stakes are great. The South China Sea sees an estimated $3.4 trillion in annual trade flows. Moreover, its retained international character cuts to the heart of the post-WWII principle of free transit.
Like the Trump administration, the Biden administration has continued to strengthen the U.S. military’s presence and capability in the region. Unfortunately, President Joe Biden has been reticent to push the Pentagon into the reforms it needs to adopt in order to maximize its combat potential. The Navy’s continuing obsession with aircraft carriers, for example, is foolhardy and risks military disaster. Biden should work with Congress to fix these problems before war forces a far bloodier fix upon the nation (one positive: the Marine Corps is doing great evolutionary work to better enable its combat power against China).
Still, with the exception of the Philippines, there’s no question that China’s imperial gambit faces rising opposition. If the U.S. can link this specific matter to the broader gamut of Xi’s abuses of international order — in terms of human rights, overfishing, intellectual property theft, aggressive espionage, trade coercion, etc. — Beijing may decide that the costs of its action outweigh the prospective benefits.
At the very least, Xi will have to act with greater caution.
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