The Biden administration is avoiding the obvious, but the West is at war with Russia. In turn, the West urgently needs a war strategy.
For nearly two decades, Moscow has engaged in a shadow war to undermine Western institutions and control its neighbors. It is now fully baring its teeth and trying to swallow Ukraine. If the Kremlin succeeds, then NATO’s eastern flank will come under immediate threat. The time to roll back Russia’s imperial aggression has arrived.
Three elements are essential in times of war: clear objectives, consistent actions, and unwavering determination. Washington was successful in exposing Moscow’s fake pretexts for invading Ukraine. However, it has not fully explained why Russia’s attack was launched and what is at stake for the Western alliance. This is not simply a question of democracy against autocracy, as President Joe Biden has repeatedly asserted. It’s about something more fundamental: national survival and independence against imperialism. A clear message that the freedom of nations is under attack and not simply the “liberal order” will have much wider global resonance.
In times of war, one does not signal to the enemy what one will not do. Whenever the United States publicly voices its red lines, the adversary gains victories. Uncertainty in Moscow regarding how America is prepared to stop the Russian war machine is more likely to generate fear and hesitation. Often, the prospect of escalation is the best way to de-escalate. That’s especially true now that Russia’s underperforming military has proved itself no match for NATO. While Russian President Vladimir Putin stokes fears of nuclear war to defeat Western resolve, he is not a nuclear jihadi. His feigned insanity should not disarm us, and his military commanders will not allow Russia’s annihilation.
Washington’s actions have been effective in forging greater unity with European allies and imposing a wide-ranging package of economic sanctions against Russia. However, the supply of vital weapons to Ukraine has been slow and insufficient. The provision of MiG-29 fighter jets from Poland, Slovakia, and Bulgaria to Ukraine’s air force should have been prepared weeks ago and not allowed to become a public relations fiasco. Several eastern flank states have committed themselves to a significant boost in defense spending, but they need guarantees of permanent U.S. bases relocated from Germany and not merely incremental additions of troops.
In terms of ultimate objectives, Washington must be clear that there is no “offramp” for Putin. The Kremlin has not only crossed the war threshold, but it has also crossed the war crimes threshold. Although only Russian citizens can overthrow Putin’s regime, the process can be hastened by helping Ukrainian forces destroy as much as possible of the Russian military and making sure that international sanctions strangle Russia’s economy. A complete Western oil, gas, and trade embargo will help decimate Moscow’s revenues.
Western leaders must also avoid overpersonalizing the Russia problem. Putin is the product of Russia’s ruling stratum, including its security and military apparatus and much of its intellectual elites, who do not recognize neighbors as fully independent states. Russia’s political structure needs to undergo de-imperialization to make sure Ukraine and other countries are not threatened again.
Comprehensive sanctions must continue until the Russian imperial state transforms or disintegrates. The survival of a regime facing war crimes charges and a state structure based on the subjugation of citizens and nations is not a good advert for promoting democracy. With the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation awarding Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the 2022 Freedom Award, it is time for Biden to call out the Russian Federation as the evil empire.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His recent book, Eurasian Disunion: Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks, is co-authored with Margarita Assenova. His new book, Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture, will be published in the spring.
