Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a turning point in Europe’s post-Cold War history.
But as the United States shifts its strategic attention to long-term competition with China, Vladimir Putin’s war must serve as a wake-up call for European countries to provide for their own defense.
For the past three decades, Europe largely took its security and stability for granted. In turn, European leaders neglected defense spending and allowed their armed forces to atrophy. Most notably, Germany, with the strongest economy in Europe, maintains a woefully unprepared military. An assessment by the German Parliament in 2020 highlighted the dysfunction of the army, with over 20,000 vacant officer positions and many major weapon systems, i.e., tanks, planes, helicopters, ships, and submarines, nonoperational. Soldiers also lack weapons and equipment. While the readiness of Germany’s military is particularly embarrassing, many other European countries share this weakness. Only a small minority of NATO member states meet the alliance’s basic 2%-of-GDP defense spending target.
Fortunately, Europe appears to be waking up from its long defense slumber amid the war in Ukraine. The West, including European nations, has levied severe economic sanctions on Russia. Western businesses are leaving the Russian market in droves, and Moscow faces diplomatic isolation. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also announced that Germany will allocate over $112 billion to a special defense fund and has promised to meet NATO’s 2% target. French President Emmanuel Macron has also announced France will increase defense spending. As Macron put it, “Europe must now accept the price for peace, freedom, and democracy. It must invest more to depend less on other continents.”
These are welcome developments. For years, Republican and Democratic administrations alike have prodded Europe to do more on defense. The issue was never about capability, as NATO Europe enjoys a collective GDP 10 times that of Russia; rather it was a lack of political will. Thanks to Putin’s heavy-handed blunder, it looks like that political will has finally manifested itself.
Macron’s statement, that Europe needs to depend “less on other continents,” is a recognition that Washington is shifting its attention to the Indo-Pacific and will no longer be able to serve as the preeminent guarantor of European security. Instead of trying to project minimal power on the other side of the world, then, European allies should shoulder the primary burden of defending Europe, freeing the U.S. to divert finite resources to the Indo-Pacific. Such a division of labor would serve U.S. interests globally.
The tragedy now occurring in Ukraine is a sad reminder that hard power remains the bedrock of the international system. To ensure the rest of Europe does not face further aggression, continental leaders need to make sure that their strong rhetoric is backed by tangible results. The old adage, “If you want peace, prepare for war,” still holds true.
Sascha Glaeser is a research associate at Defense Priorities. He focuses on U.S. grand strategy, international security, and trans-Atlantic relations. He holds a master’s in international public affairs and a bachelor’s in international studies from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
