Lacking the force capacity, logistics train, morale, and combat power to remove Ukraine’s ability to resist, Vladimir Putin has a big problem.
The Russian president has staked a great deal of political capital on subjugating Ukraine’s democracy and restoring its people under Moscow’s authority. Putin’s agenda is now burning in Ukraine. Rather than fulfilling his almost theological mission to become the new Catherine the Great, the architect of a modern Russian empire, Putin now appears a new Grigory Kulik, a leader defined by obstinate military delusion.
Yet, Putin possesses something that neither Catherine nor Kulik did: nuclear weapons. We must not ignore that reality as Putin now considers whether to compromise for peace or escalate in the desperate pursuit of victory.
In turn, it is critical that the United States now do all it can to persuade Putin to take the peace option. President Joe Biden must make clear that a Russian nuclear attack on the U.S. or any European nation, Ukraine or otherwise, will be a game-changer. For numerous reasons, a Russian nuclear strike remains highly unlikely. But it cannot be discounted entirely.
Top line: The U.S. must provide strategic clarity designed to dilute Putin’s assessment that a limited nuclear strike could serve his objectives.
To do so, the U.S. should pledge commensurate nuclear retaliation to any Russian nuclear strike against NATO. Washington should also make clear that a nuclear attack on Ukraine will result in Biden’s request to Congress, and request for allied support, for an authorization of military force to repel Russian forces from Ukraine. Biden should make the same pledge in relation to scaled Russian chemical or biological weapons attacks on Ukrainian cities.
Biden’s immediate clarity is crucial in light of his worrisome nuclear weapons policy record. This record is something that Russian intelligence officers, and Putin personally, will have paid very close attention to.
Consider the now senior Pentagon official and former national security adviser to then-Vice President Biden, Colin Kahl. Kahl appears to have recently told Max Fisher that during an Obama administration nuclear war game, he “persuaded” U.S. military commanders to forgo nuclear retaliation following a limited Russian nuclear strike. Instead, Kahl had the U.S. “isolate Moscow diplomatically.”
This is an insane message to send so publicly to Moscow, especially now. More than any other nation, Russia’s nuclear strategic doctrine rests on the exploitation of apparent hesitation and Moscow’s associated dominance of the escalation curve. To deter Putin effectively, the Russian leader must thus know that the costs of any nuclear action will far outweigh any prospective benefits. Put another way, Russia must take the exact opposite understanding of that which Kahl (remember, he’s now the Pentagon’s top policy official) appears proud to publicize.
Biden’s troubling record on nuclear weapons goes beyond this.
Biden rejected Trump-era nuclear weapons developments specifically designed to limit Russia’s strategy regarding limited nuclear attacks. Last year, Biden responded to Russian complaints by pressuring the Pentagon to reduce its nuclear weapons-related military exercises. In responding to Putin’s recent escalation of Russia’s nuclear readiness status, Biden canceled a long-planned U.S. strategic weapons test. That sent a toxic message of hesitation.
No one wants any use of any nuclear weapons of any type or yield. But the best way to prevent that outcome is not to show hesitation or ambiguity. Rather, it is to make clear to Putin that if he uses such a weapon, he will face catastrophic consequences.
