Even before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, several poorly informed U.S. analysts urged Kyiv to capitulate. They believed that the mighty Russian military would rapidly overrun Ukraine’s forces and implored NATO not to provoke Putin by supplying weapons to Kyiv. Four weeks into its war of national liberation, Ukraine is again advised by an assortment of observers to placate Moscow by surrendering Donbas and Crimea and disarming itself through neutrality.
Such analysts fail to understand that the post-Cold War era is over and there are no neutral states on the front line between a free Europe and an imperial Russia. A country committed to its independence and territorial integrity needs to be part of an effective security structure. Kyiv has made it abundantly clear that it seeks real security guarantees, whether inside or outside NATO, and not vague promises from the West. And Ukraine, of all countries, has proven through its resilience and fighting prowess that it will defend European security as well as its own.
In this context, the negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow should not be misconstrued. Kyiv is not negotiating from a position of weakness but of growing military strength. Ukraine is primarily talking to Russia to relieve pressure on civilians and ensure humanitarian aid. It is also demonstrating to the West that Moscow’s demands remain unacceptable. For Russia, the objective is to push the West into neutralizing Ukraine while pressing Kyiv to agree to the status of a disarmed vassal. As in previous “peace talks,” the Kremlin engages in open blackmail, in which either Ukraine’s sovereignty is curtailed or more Ukrainian civilians will be killed.
A senior adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky has clearly spelled out Ukraine’s position in the talks: a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, and “strong security guarantees with concrete formulas.” The latter indicates either steps toward NATO membership or a treaty with NATO or the United States that would ensure Ukraine receives all of the necessary weapons for deterrence and self-defense. Russia itself cannot be a party to guaranteeing Ukrainian security because it remains Ukraine’s only security threat that violated the 1994 Budapest Memorandum — an agreement signed by the U.S., the U.K., and Russia to ensure Ukraine’s security after Kyiv surrendered its nuclear weapons.
As Russia’s war against Ukraine expands, Kyiv has every right to conduct missile strikes and sabotage operations against airfields and other military targets inside neighboring regions of Russia that are hosting attacks on Ukrainian territory. Such a response would raise morale in Ukraine and make it more difficult for Moscow to hide the war from its own people. Washington and Brussels cannot restrain a country that is fighting for its survival to strike wherever it can against a genocidal enemy, similarly to resistance armies during the Nazi occupation.
While Ukraine fights, the White House should also avoid unwittingly assisting the Kremlin’s fear campaign by warning of World War III in the event of any escalation in the war through NATO involvement. Russia’s military is no match for NATO and will avoid any direct confrontation. In addition to the organizational inadequacies, equipment failures, and manpower shortages exposed in Ukraine, Russia faces an unprecedented economic catastrophe as Western sanctions tighten. In addition, Moscow has no reliable allies. Even Belarus and the Central Asian states in the Moscow-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization do not want to fight on behalf of Russia’s imperialism. Moreover, China will avoid being drawn into war and instead prepare to acquire energy sources and valuable Siberian and Far Eastern territories once Russia begins to implode.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His recent book, Eurasian Disunion: Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks, is co-authored with Margarita Assenova. His new book, Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture, will be published in the spring.
