In a polarized, closely-divided Congress, the fight for U.S. Senate control comes with high stakes. This year’s elections will determine whether Republicans or Democrats capture a Senate majority, or if the present 50-50 split continues.
There are 35 Senate seats on the block this November, of which 21 are held by Republicans and 14 by Democrats. Seven incumbents aren’t running: six Republicans and one Democrat.
Numerically, Republicans have greater exposure for loss, with more of their seats at risk. But the national winds are blowing against Democrats. That means Republicans may have the momentum to win the toughest fights.
Before they set sights on one another, both parties must wrestle with internal complications and avoid unforced errors. The Democratic Party has to deal with President Biden’s weak poll numbers as well as progressive ideologues who want to push their candidates dangerously to the left in critical states. The Republican Party has to deal with Donald Trump, who bashes Republicans, endorses weak general election candidates and sidetracks party messaging by focusing on personal grievances.
The intensity of Senate competition this year means vicious campaigns and stratospheric spending by candidates and outside groups. Not long ago, $10 million was an adequate budget for most Senate campaigns. But no more. In 2020, candidates in Arizona spent a total of $171 million and in South Carolina, $239 million. In Georgia, $256 million was spent for one seat and $339 million was spent on a second seat in a special election. In Maine, one of the nation’s smallest states, the loser alone spent $74 million. Nonprofit organizations and super PACs spend heavily in addition to candidates. In the last election, for example, $222 million was poured into North Carolina and $174 million into Iowa by outside groups.
This November, there are 11 Senate races to watch. That number could change over time.
Democrats have to defend five incumbents who may be vulnerable – Mark Kelly in Arizona, Raphael Warnock in Georgia and Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada, Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire and Michael Bennet in Colorado.
An upside for Democrats is that all of their vulnerable incumbents are in states Biden carried in 2020, albeit by tight margins in some. The downside is the president’s low ratings and voter frustration with current conditions – that could produce an anti-Democratic wave across the country. Republicans have at least one vulnerable incumbent, and that’s Ron Johnson in Wisconsin. By running for a third term, he’s breaking the two-term pledge he made in 2010.
Another Republican incumbent to watch is Lisa Murkowski in Alaska. The danger she faces is in the primary; Trump and his loyalists are going all-out to defeat her. But that’s nothing new for her. As an incumbent in 2010, Murkowski lost the GOP primary and went on to beat both the Republican and Democratic nominees in the general election as a write-in. Democrats hope to upset Republican Marco Rubio in Florida, but polls show him well ahead in a state that has recently trended to the right.
While Democrats are mostly threatened by endangered incumbents, Republicans are mostly threatened by open seats, especially in three competitive states – Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina.
The battle for Senate control has just begun, with primaries now attracting most of the attention. Based on recent elections, the final outcome is not likely to be decided until the last week or two when the five or six closest races finally break.
Ron Faucheux is a nonpartisan political analyst. He publishes LunchtimePolitics.com, a free nationwide newsletter on polls and public opinion.
