Russian authorities have raised terrorist threat levels in border regions to the north and northeast of Ukraine. The alerts in Bryansk, Kursk, and Voronezh may portend Russian false flag attacks on the country’s own citizens, used to justify escalation against Ukraine.
This would not be the first time. In the buildup to Russia’s late February invasion, Ukraine’s SBU domestic intelligence service disrupted a Russian plot to recruit Ukrainian criminals. These criminals were to be paid thousands of dollars each to stage a terrorist attack on Russian soil. The men were apparently told by their Russian handlers that they would be released on completion of their assignment, but the SBU believes Russia intended to eliminate them.
That is not the only example of such Russian scheming. Offering no credible evidence, in late January, Russia blamed an August 2021 bus explosion in Voronezh on Ukrainian terrorists.
By declassifying intelligence on similar Russian plots, the United States seems to have successfully deterred the Kremlin from carrying out further attacks so far. And while some of the U.S. intelligence disclosed on these threats has been of a lower order of confidence, I understand that the general evidence pointing to a likely Russian false flag attack has been both varied and credible. Still, two factors make it likely that Russia would now see new value in a false flag attack.
First, the war in Ukraine is going badly for Russia. Although Vladimir Putin’s forces are repositioning for a major offensive in eastern Ukraine, they have suffered very heavy casualties and a significant loss of equipment. Morale is low, doubt is high, and discipline is poor. Although Russian state media have reluctantly begun to admit that the so-called “special operation” has led to significant casualties, the Russian people will be shocked when battalions rotate home for leave and the true scale of losses becomes clear. I understand from sources that Russian casualties may now easily exceed 20,000 killed in action. Many thousands more than that number have been seriously wounded.
Putin will want to secure appreciable territorial or political gains in order to justify such losses. But considering the tenacity of Ukraine’s resistance and looming boosts to Ukraine’s ability to conduct deep battlespace operations (further behind Russian front lines), Putin cannot credibly expect significant near-term victories.
The Kremlin might thus see a terrorist attack or series of terrorist attacks on Russian soil as a way to buy breathing room for the military campaign. Such attacks, it might be hoped in Moscow, would consolidate Russian popular support for the “special operation.” Putin might also see a false flag attack as a way to justify even harsher reprisals against Ukraine’s civilian population.
What might this attack look like? In a reference that bears striking resemblance to the 1999 Moscow apartment bombings, at least some of which were likely false flag attacks to justify Russian escalation in Chechnya, Russian state media are warning of a threat to apartment buildings. Tass says that authorities are advising Russians who live in areas affected by the terrorist alerts to “refrain from visiting places of mass stay if possible, to carry identification documents with them, and also to pay attention to the appearance of strangers and cars in the territories adjacent to residential buildings.”
It’s unclear how Russia would know that a terrorist group is specifically targeting residential buildings versus malls, churches, or other public gathering places. Regardless, the threat to residential buildings will cultivate perceptions of a popular Russian struggle against a determined external threat. If you believe that Ukrainians are planning to kill you, your family, and your neighbors, your inclination to seek accord with Ukrainians is likely to decline. This threat to innocent life fits well with Russian presentations of Ukraine as a fiefdom of 21st-century Nazism.
So if apartment buildings start blowing up in Bryansk or Voronezh, it’s likely that Russians, not Ukrainians, are ultimately responsible.
