As the war in Ukraine approaches its third month, there are a few conclusions worth noting.
First, the Russian military has revealed itself to be a bumbling mess. A military that is devoid of skilled commanders at the top and motivated soldiers at the bottom. Second, the West, so often divided on Russia policy in the past, has responded to Vladimir Putin’s invasion with an unparalleled, coordinated sanctions campaign. Third, Ukraine is proving to be a far more ferocious defender than many analysts predicted.
Unfortunately, there’s another conclusion we can no longer ignore: the prospects of an end-of-war settlement are probably dead at the moment.
Until a large-scale battle in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region is settled, diplomacy isn’t happening. The battle in the Donbas is already underway. The Russians have been conducting shaping operations, surging supplies, and stationing most, if not all, of their ground forces in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The West is accelerating weapons shipments to Ukraine and sending heavier weapons platforms, including Mi-17 helicopters, howitzers, and armored personnel carriers.
U.S. officials are expecting a drawn-out battle in the Donbas that could last months. In contrast to its bogged-down campaign around Kyiv, Russia has the benefit of a shorter logistical tail in the east, which means some of the problems that plagued the Russian offensive in the north (such as stalled, miles-long columns sitting on the roads without gas) may be minimized this time around. After such a pitiful military performance during the first two months, Russia has something to prove: that its military can shake off the cobwebs and change its fighting strategy. The Ukrainians have something to prove as well: Just as we drove Russian forces from Kyiv and Chernihiv, we can stall the Russian advance in the Donbas indefinitely.
Of course, the number of incorrect predictions that have been shattered in this war should humble us all.
But there is one prognostication we can make with a high degree of confidence: Any diplomatic settlement between Ukraine and Russia will have to wait until after fighting in the Donbas concludes. Painful, bloody stalemates can force combatants to reassess their original objectives and sit at the table. It took eight years and over 1 million casualties before Iran’s Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and Iraq’s Saddam Hussein finally agreed to put down their guns. A Russian military victory in the Donbas will inevitably increase Moscow’s diplomatic leverage, whereas a defeat could convince Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that Kyiv can forget about negotiations and press for a military solution. Putin will do everything he can to avoid such a scenario. He needs a win.
Where does this leave us?
Well, the war crimes will continue, and Ukrainian civilians unable or unwilling to evacuate will have no choice but to live in hell. And diplomatic advances, however limited, will be kicked down the road until one or both of the parties feel the need to actually negotiate in good faith.
Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.
