Tourism is crucial to Greece.
It accounts for nearly 20% of Greece’s gross domestic product and employs almost a million people in a country of just over 10 million. COVID-19 devastated the industry, but Athens was optimistic that tourism would bounce back this year. Then came Ukraine. While the European Union accounts for most tourists visiting Greece to sun on its beaches, browse its boutiques, or explore its ancient ruins, Russians traditionally have not been far behind. In the first 11 months of 2021, Russian visitors to Greece rose 350% over the previous year, contributing more than $115 million to the local economy. It has been less than a decade since Greece weathered a devastating financial crisis: In 2011, Greece’s real gross domestic product dropped more than 10%, while a decade ago, it contracted a further 7%.
Under such circumstances, it might be tempting for Athens to seek to profit off of the Ukraine crisis, but Greece today is a democracy. Greeks of all stripes turned their backs on populism, condemning Golden Dawn’s hate to oblivion. Greek leaders from across the political spectrum recognized that what the Ukraine crisis represents is not an opportunity to seek advantage but rather a struggle to preserve the post-World War II liberal order. By upholding EU sanctions, Athens incurred Moscow’s wrath. Almost overnight, the flow of Russian tourists stopped.
Compare that with Turkey.
While Turkey, and its regime’s enablers in Washington, continue to argue that it is an underappreciated ally and a pivotal NATO member, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has disagreed. When push came to shove in the current crisis, Ankara put profit above principle. Consider Turkish Airlines, a partnership between the Turkish state and private investors close to President Tayyip Erdogan. As Russian tourists stopped flying to Greece, Turkish Airlines sought to pick up the slack and divert Russia’s lucrative tourist trade to Turkey. On April 11, Turkish Airlines — with the facilitation of Turkey’s Ministries of Culture, Transport, and Finance — signed an agreement to bring 1.5 million Russian tourists to Turkey this year. As Western airlines stop flying to Moscow and other Russian destinations, Turkish Airlines and its affiliated low-cost carriers will expand their routes. The Turkish government and Turkish Airlines will subsidize Russian tour operators by means of a $300 million loan.
This is not the first time Erdogan has used Turkish Airlines to profit at the expense of the West. In 2014, a leaked tape of a telephone conversation between an adviser to Erdogan and the private secretary of the CEO of Turkish Airlines suggested that Turkey was using its flagship carrier to smuggle weapons to the militant Islamist group Boko Haram.
In November 2021, Iraqi Kurds congregated on the Belarus-Poland border, seeking to cross into Europe, with several of them dying of exposure as winter snows began to fall. They may have traveled across Turkey in the backs of trucks, but to reach Belarus, the migrants flew with Turkish Airlines. The crisis dissipated only when an EU representative warned Erdogan that Turkey’s continued weaponization of the refugee flow would result in a blanket ban of Turkish Airlines in Europe.
Herein lies the solution. Turkey puts cash above principle but fears action against Turkish Airlines. Erdogan recently inaugurated a new, multibillion-dollar airport in Istanbul to serve as the carrier’s hub, and Turkish officials regularly brag about the prestige the airline brings and its reach. While it is useful to tighten the noose on Russia’s finance, it is also necessary to signal zero tolerance for Turkey seeking to profit off of sanctions and embargo busting the way it previously did with regard to Iran’s nuclear sanctions.
If Washington and Brussels truly care about Ukraine, then it is a no-brainer to deny Turkish Airlines landing and refueling rights in the West as long as its new deals with Russia remain in force. Enough is enough. If Athens can make tough decisions, so too can Ankara. It’s time for Turkey to choose a side.
Michael Rubin (@mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential. He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
