President Joe Biden has a prediction about overturning Roe v. Wade that, like the rest of his political instincts, is probably wrong.
Biden thinks that if the Supreme Court overturns the precedent this month, sending abortion law back to the states, it will help the Democratic Party this November.
“I don’t think the country will stand for it,” Biden told Jimmy Kimmel last week. “If, in fact, the decision comes down the way it does and these states impose the limitations they’re talking about, it’s going to cause a mini-revolution, and they’re going to vote these folks out of office.”
Biden is off-base for a couple of reasons.
First, this is a disgusting way to talk about abortion. Biden doesn’t think the country will stand for some states not allowing people to kill their children. If that’s true, then there is something severely wrong with our country.
Plus, politically, Biden’s prediction isn’t playing out.
The draft decision showing that the Supreme Court plans to overturn Roe v. Wade leaked more than a month ago. And yet, Republicans lead the RealClearPolitics polling average for Congress by 3.5 points (46.2% to 42.7%). Plus, Texas banned abortion after six weeks back in September, and despite Democrat Beto O’Rourke coming within 3 points of beating Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in a U.S. Senate race in 2018, it doesn’t look like he’ll win the state this time around either. Texas is in the “likely Republican” category for governor, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
The truth is, Biden is a terrible president with an abysmal approval rating. Biden has a lower approval rating at this point in his presidency (40.1%) than Donald Trump (41.8%), who was considered a historically unpopular president, according to FiveThirtyEight.
People see gas prices exceeding $5 per gallon, rapid inflation, and an administration light on legislative accomplishments. Real wages are declining, making it harder for people to pay their bills. People see Biden and the Democrats controlling Congress as ineffective. That’s what will drive people out to vote in the midterm elections this November.
While most people may want to keep elective abortion legal in some instances, it’s not their top concern. Most people don’t have abortions, and there are ways to avoid unintended pregnancies, including contraception.
Meanwhile, the increased cost of living affects all of us. Biden, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) have shown they are inept on issues such as inflation and high gas prices. They’ll try to get people to vote to keep Democrats in control of Congress over what will be a state issue. However, it doesn’t seem like that will work. The majority of Americans aren’t single-issue, pro-choice voters.
Unpopular incumbent parties tend to do poorly in midterm elections. Despite Biden’s prediction, this election will be no different.
Tom Joyce (@TomJoyceSports) is a political reporter for the New Boston Post in Massachusetts.
